Garett Jones and Daniel Rothschild discuss similarities between
the Katrina recovery and the bailout on Forbes.com.
On the surface, Hurricane Katrina and the financial crisis might
not seem to have much in common. One was a natural disaster, the
other a story of man-made markets collapsing. One struck the poor
and defenseless, the other, the hubristic masters of the universe.
One concentrated its wrath on a small area of the Gulf Coast, the
other will have effects felt across the country and indeed the
world. But Washington used a similar recipe to respond to both
crises: Create programs that quickly shift from one purpose to
another, mix with complete opacity in the policymaking process and
add some frequent and seismic shifts in what economists call the
rules of the game. The result is quite predictable: A bad situation
that grows much, much worse. For example, compare the Louisiana
Road Home Program, intended to compensate Louisianans whose homes
had been damaged by Katrina, to the Treasury Department's
Troubled Asset Relief Plan, TARP. The Road Home Program was
intended to encourage Louisianans to return home and repair their
owner-occupied properties. However, it quickly morphed into a
social engineering scheme that fell between the Department of
Housing and Urban Development's rules for a compensation
program and a revitalization program; it was a hybrid that fell
into a regulatory black hole from which homeowners are still trying
to escape. While initially designed to rapidly provide rebuilding
assistance to residents, it was loaded down with caveats and
clauses meant to engineer a particular rebuilding plan, rather than
allow the rebuilding to emerge spontaneously. Government rules
became government direction, and private decision making was shoved
into the back corner. As a result of this mission creep, the
program became painfully slow: By the end of 2007, two years after
Katrina, only about one-fourth of Road Home applications had been
finalized. The biggest problem with Road Home was that it caused
people to wait for promised federal help, and indeed, some people
are still waiting. The initial promise of quick and easy government
assistance combined with inept program administration and a 57-step
application process mean that even three years after Katrina,
thousands of homeowners are still waiting for their checks.
What's more, the social engineering aspects of the program,
intended to rebuild whole neighborhoods, have failed miserably. So
government action delayed private action and government plans
crowded out local solutions. But if you liked the effects of Road
Home, you'll love the results of TARP, or as it's now
called under new Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, the
government's "Financial Stability Plan." According to
former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the bailout plan had to be
passed to prevent a full-scale collapse of world financial markets.
Congress dutifully passed the bill, yet the stock and commercial
paper markets collapsed anyway, a sign that the markets didn't
like what they saw in the bailout bill. Now, in a classic example
of mission creep, the old TARP funds have become auto bailout
funds, mortgage restructuring funds, and most ominously, equity
investment funds. As the rules change on a weekly basis, businesses
are just sitting on the sidelines, and investment spending is
plummeting. Both the Financial Stability Plan and the Road Home
program favor stability over progress and predictable mediocrity
over vibrant innovation. And both make the government a
dominant--indeed, domineering--partner in recovery. Every day, we
see the new demands put forward by the Treasury, by congressional
chairmen, by senators. They're almost acting like they own
these companies. Which, of course, they almost do. But more
significantly, these twin bailouts weaken the entrepreneurial
impulse that is vital for effective rebuilding, whether on the Gulf
Coast or in financial markets. In Louisiana, areas where
entrepreneurs and innovators have taken the lead in rebuilding are
light years ahead of areas still waiting on Road Home checks.
Opting out of the government's shekels means opting out of
government's shackles. The financial bailout is teaching the
banking sector (a term that seems to encompass more of the economy
with every passing day) to behave like a government agency: keep
your head down, and better to be safe than sorry. Customers are to
be tolerated, not served. Above all, be risk averse, and paper over
any failures no matter how glaring. This was the mentality that in
post-bubble Japan created zombie firms and zombie banks, which led
to a decade of stable, no-work jobs at the price of wage
stagnation, profit stagnation and productivity stagnation. Welcome
now to American zombie banks and zombie mortgages, to a world where
the titans of Wall Street learn to act like predictable,
dependable, innovation-free federal bureaucrats, where people are
held captive in their homes because they've got low-cost,
government-subsidized mortgages. Over the next few years, we'll
be reminded again that the two words in Schumpeter's famous
phrase, "creative destruction" are only offered as a
package deal. Economics shows that government failure is at least
as important as market failure; the mismanagement of Katrina
provides too many real-life examples of so many government
failures. And as endless bailouts encourage the private sector to
behave like government agencies, we'll get to see supposedly
private businesses duplicate many of the failings of government
bureaucracies: the caution, the sluggishness, the deference to
government power. That's just what post-Katrina policy
encouraged Louisianans to do. And it's what the Bailout Nation
is doing now to our financial markets, our auto companies, and, if
we're not careful, to the rest of the U.S. economy. Garett
Jones is assistant professor of economics and senior scholar at the
Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Daniel Rothschild
directs the Mercatus Center's Gulf Coast Recovery Project.