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Prophecies of Doom and Scenarios of Progress

Herman Kahn, Julian Simon and the Prospective Imagination

Paul Dragos Aligica

May 30, 2007

Summary

The images of the future and of the environmental and demographic challenges humanity will encounter in the coming decades tend to be framed in the public discourse more often than not from a "doom and gloom," "limits to growth" perspective. The origins of this propensity stem from the successful efforts of an intellectual and political movement that--starting from the mid sixties--tried to impose its pessimistic interpretation of the dilemmas posed by the technological revolution and the economic growth associated to it. Yet, that interpretation did not go unchallenged.

This book by Paul Dragos Aligica focuses on the alternative paradigm, the pro-growth intellectual tradition that rejected the prophecies of doom and called for realism and pragmatism in dealing with the challenge of the future. Its objective is to reconstruct and describe the basic elements of this tradition that emerged in the seventies as a response to the Club of Rome and the "limits to growth" movement and to outline a comprehensive perspective on its methodological and conceptual foundations.

The book uses as a vehicle the work of the two major founders of this alternative approach: Herman Kahn and Julian Simon. Conceptually reconstructing and presenting the essence, unity and coherence of the social theory paradigm they helped create is important not only from a history of ideas perspective but also as a contribution to the current avatars of the debates on population, resources and economic growth. The book is a pioneering attempt to overview and to synthesize the main themes of the Kahn-Simon perspective while outlining the logic connecting these themes and exploring their broader significance. The book starts with the specific theses and arguments expounded during the exchanges with the "limits to growth" advocates, continues by moving to a discussion of the methods and approaches advanced by the two authors as means of coping with the epistemic challenge of the future and ends up outlining the foundational notions and assumptions underlying both their methods and their arguments. A powerful vision and a challenging social theory and philosophy, pivoting around the role of human intelligence, imagination and creativity in history and social change will be thus outlined.

Publisher : Continuum International Publishing Group
ISBN : 082642872X
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