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Expensive Easter Eggs: What Happens When You Don’t Import Much

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Having multiple people you can buy from can be helpful if your main supplier gets in a bind. Or catches the flu, as is the case with many U.S. poultry flocks. With the avian flu hitting the United States, egg supply has been constrained and prices have increased. There is little international trade in fresh eggs, leaving little room for imports to fill the gap.

American shoppers have been feeling the pain at the checkout aisle. In February (latest data available), a carton of eggs was $4.21 compared with $2.01 the year prior. This offers an opportunity to see what happens when you don’t import much (spoiler alert: you are much more dependent on yourself).

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reports that as of March 30, the highly pathogenic avian influenza had been detected in 323 commercial flocks and 493 backyard flocks, affecting 58.7 million birds. This, obviously, has reduced egg supply, which has raised egg prices. It seems to be getting better just in time for Easter, with data showing fewer new recent cases.

Most new cases now appear to be in backyard flocks, not commercial flocks. But the virus can spread from a backyard flock to commercial flock through interaction with other birds. Wild bird migration arrivals are expected in April and May (see map). Poultry farmers are hoping the flu doesn’t come back, although veterinary epidemiologists are bracing for a fresh wave of infections. Table egg production (and the lay rate) has declined in recent months, which will put further constraint on supply moving forward.

Imports are unlikely to fill the gap. U.S. imports of table eggs represent less than 1% of consumption. The United States runs a continual trade surplus in table eggs. Last year (2022), we imported 4.1 million dozen eggs and exported 60.7 million dozen.

The reason for so few U.S. imports of table eggs is primarily food and health issues. Eggs can carry harmful viruses. APHIS regulates the importation of animals and animal-derived materials, and that includes table eggs. “Foreign producers must comply with all of the requirements of the Food and Drug Administration’s ‘Egg Rule’ found in 21 CFR Part 118 – Production, Storage, and Transportation of Shell Eggs,” according to the import requirements for table eggs. The Agriculture Marketing Service also requires an import application and foreign inspection certificate. Not many egg producers around the world pass this high bar.

APHIS is one of those agencies you don’t hear about very often. If you’re lucky, it will stay that way. For instance, if you haven’t heard of African Swine Fever, that is probably because the agency stopped the virus from infecting U.S. swine herds, which would have devastated U.S. pork producers. There are numerous viruses that you may have never heard of over the last 50 years thanks to APHIS.

The drawback is that with relatively few imports, Americans are dependent on U.S. flocks for supply, on commercial and backyard flocks following safety protocols, and on APHIS for early detection and prevention of pandemics that could devastate U.S. egg supply.

This may or may not lead to a rethink of the import requirements for this unique product. But when it comes to policymakers thinking about supply chains more generally, the lesson should be clear: Diversity is good. Don’t put the proverbial eggs in one basket.

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