Undertone
By Dan Schulz
UndertoneJan 15, 2024
Sebastian Mallaby
Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Mallaby contributes to a variety of publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He’s the author of many of my favorite business books of all time including The Power Law on the history of Venture Capital, More Money Than God on the history of Hedge Funds, and The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan, which is one of my favorite biographies ever in any category.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:57) Business journalism
(0:04:11) Journalists as investors
(0:06:24) Most misunderstood part of the economy
(0:07:34) EMH
(0:11:49) Private v public markets
(0:17:27) Liquidity premium
(0:20:13) New asset management models
(0:26:12) Investor specialization
(0:37:42) Firm culture vs outlier talent
(0:41:00) Sequoia and FTX
(0:44:40) Meme stocks
(0:45:56) VC vs hedge funds
(0:50:38) Decision making at the Fed
(0:57:22) Evolution of the Fed
(1:01:34) Powell
(1:05:39) The Fed’s political independence
(1:07:13) History, Marx, Carlyle
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Links
- Sebastian's profile for the Council on Foreign Relations
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more
- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Nabeel S. Qureshi
Nabeel is a Visiting Scholar at the Mercatus Center focused on developing an optimistic vision for AI, but as you’ll see in this conversation his breadth of interests goes about as wide as you can imagine. We talk about foreign film, interpreting the Iliad, Shakespeare, Wittgenstein, Derek Parfit, SF vs. NYC, AI, startups, and a lot more.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:49) Nabeel's favorite directors
(0:02:59) Underrated regions for film
(0:04:33) Nabeel's favorite Hollywood movies
(0:06:20) What makes a movie visually inspiring?
(0:09:34) Shakespeare on film
(0:10:31) Miyazaki
(0:12:03) Paris, Texas
(0:14:34) Jia Zhangke
(0:16:12) When is the movie better than the book?
(0:18:06) CGI
(0:18:44) Robert Bresson
(0:20:30) Love in film
(0:21:50) Director's Nabeel hasn't been able to "get"?
(0:22:34) Film theory
(0:24:15) Do the arts matter for founders?
(0:26:08) Going deep on great books
(0:29:31) The Iliad
(0:32:24) Tolstoy and Shakespeare
(0:34:21) Henry IV
(0:37:51) Shakespeare’s Sonnets
(0:38:56) Secondary literature
(0:41:18) Rene Girard
(0:42:57) Norman Rush's "Mating"
(0:44:27) Watership Down
(0:46:13) Harold Bloom
(0:48:04) Sci-fi
(0:49:32) Authors Nabeel hasn't been able to get
(0:50:35) Tech pessimists
(0:54:40) LLMs and the big questions
(0:57:59) Peter Hacker
(0:59:58) Wittgenstein
(1:01:47) Derek Parfit
(1:03:55) Moral intuition
(1:05:13) Do EAs make good CEOs or founders?
(1:07:20) Selfishness
(1:09:43) Favorite albums
(1:10:26) Beethoven
(1:11:27) Modernized opera
(1:12:38) NYC
(1:13:38) Chess
(1:14:31) California
(1:17:57) Fashion
(1:18:57) Eating in NYC
(1:19:52) Travel
(1:21:40) High school
(1:22:30) Twitter
(1:31:05) SF and AI
(1:32:38) AI doomers
(1:34:28) AGI timelines
(1:36:07) Nabeel's LLM usage
(1:43:42) Science brain vs founder brain
(1:47:48) Iteration vs conviction
(1:51:02) Is art education or entertainment?
(1:54:53) Sabbaticals
(1:58:53) What makes Nabeel imbalanced as a personality?
(2:00:05) Cold emails
(2:01:43) Meditating
(2:04:09) Regret
(2:05:16) Reminding yourself you will die
(2:08:04) GoCardless and startup culture
(2:13:37) Ideas vs execution
(2:16:10) Peter Thiel and Alex Karp?
(2:18:38) Philosophers in tech
(2:21:19) Learnings from Palantir
(2:23:18) Conclusion
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Links
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more
- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Sarah Constantin
Sarah and I talk about ultrasound neuromodluation, AI, and cancer research.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:22) Ultrasound neuromodulation
(0:02:33) Where is it in the tech lifecycle?
(0:03:48) Why should it be possible?
(0:07:44) How impactful will neuromodulation be?
(0:12:08) Startups working on neuromodulation
(0:16:33) Could we read minds?
(0:18:54) Public acceptance of neuromodulation
(0:27:36) Neuromodulation vs AI
(0:31:55) AI and drug discovery
(0:35:53) AI x-risk
(0:43:34) What would make Sarah worried about AI?
(0:47:00) Is human intelligence simple?
(0:51:01) Probability of solving aging
(0:56:28) Is cancer research doing something avoidably wrong?
(1:05:48) Are aesthetic judgements a kind of moral judgement?
(1:09:44) What should a 14 year old do to understand Sarah’s view of the world?
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Links
- Sarah's post on ultrasound neuromodulation
- Sarah's post "Why I am not an AI Doomer"
- Sarah's post "Aesthetic judgements are moral judgements"
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more
- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Alexey Guzey
Alexey and I talk about science, productivity, and utilitarianism.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(00:23) How accessible should a good research paper be?
(03:47) Good taste
(07:07) What does Russia get right?
(12:05) Favorite Dostoyevsky novel
(14:16) Utilitarianism
(16:42) High IQ v genius
(17:59) Tyler Cowen's advice
(20:13) Bad science
(31:25) Productivity
(32:55) Updating beliefs
(35:18) Meditation
(37:53) Religion
(40:02) Starting a blog
(41:20) Video games
(42:48) Go outside
(45:19) David Goggins
(49:23) Advice
(51:04) True Detective
(56:05) Alpha in low status
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Links
- Follow Alexey on X
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more.
- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Noah Smith
Noah and I talk about Keynes' 15 hour work week, Piketty's r>g, economic development in Africa, Javier Milei, Anime, and more.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:30) Noah’s intellectual influences
(0:10:20) Javier Milei
(0:11:43) Which macroeconomist would Noah give the highest grade?
(0:13:47) Defining mainstream macro in 2024
(0:18:22) Innovation in macroeconomics
(0:21:48) NGDP targeting
(0:24:35) Keynes and the 15 hour work week
(0:30:25) Is inequality a problem?
(0:34:16) Thomas Piketty and r>g
(0:39:37) Africa’s economic development
(0:44:47) What has Noah changed his mind about recently?
(0:47:59) Noah’s prolific output
(0:52:25) Noah’s goals for the blog
(0:53:41) Anime
(0:55:46) Japanese policy in the US
(0:57:56) Inheritance tax
(1:04:38) Japanese zoning policy
(1:06:12) When is technology dangerous?
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Links
- Noah’s podcast with Brad DeLong
- Noah’s post, “How are Milton Friedman's ideas holding up?”
- Noah’s post, “All futurism is Afrofuturism”
- Noah’s post, “Heterodox vs. mainstream macroeconomics”
- Noah’s post, “Techno-optimism for 2024”
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Watch or listen to previous episodes of Undertone with Tyler Cowen, Vitalik Buterin, Scott Sumner, Samo Burja, Steve Hsu, and more.
- I love hearing from listeners. Email me any time at dan@danschulz.co
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Tyler Cowen
Tyler and I talk about nearly everything.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:28) Identifying talent on Tyler’s podcast
(0:03:48) Why are follow up questions overrated?
(0:04:21) Tyler’s preferred guest career stage
(0:05:16) Optimal frequency for recording podcasts
(0:05:50) Tyler’s podcast prep
(0:07:39) Importance of in-person episodes
(0:09:56) What would Tyler ask Paul McCartney
(0:10:16) When to read literature in translation
(0:13:31) Tyler on Dostoyevsky and Nietzsche
(0:15:39) Elena Ferrante and the importance of pseudonyms
(0:17:17) Misreading literature
(0:17:56) Will literature get better in the next 10 years?
(0:19:21) Watching complex film
(0:22:14) Enjoying art
(0:23:08) Jonathan Swift and Peter Thiel
(0:24:45) Crude comedy
(0:25:28) Can we trust elites in the internet age?
(0:26:44) Generational theories of politics
(0:27:57) Religious thinkers and Tyler’s implicit theology
(0:29:33) What did Tyler get from Plato at a young age?
(0:30:51) Why are Shakespeare, Proust, and Melville in a league of their own?
(0:31:32) Fernando Pessoa
(0:31:59) Implications of demand sloping down
(0:33:22) Innovation in governance structures
(0:36:14) Should business leaders study the greats?
(0:38:36) GDP growth from today’s AI models
(0:40:35) LessWrong and worries about AI
(0:41:46) Feminized societies in times of chaos
(0:43:17) Fernand Braudel
(0:43:52) Best argument against NGDP targeting
(0:47:06) AI business models
(0:48:19) What is a bubble?
(0:49:33) Where are there too few Emergent Ventures applications?
(0:50:09) Unsolved problems in economics
(0:51:27) Immigration policy
(0:52:56) If Tyler wasn’t an economist
(0:53:50) Would Tyler go to Burning Man?
(0:54:33) The MR Universe
(0:55:32) Tyler’s equanimity
(0:57:15) Tyrone
(0:59:27) Joyce Carol Oates and Susan Sontag
(1:04:45) Wasting time
(1:04:54) Bach’s productivity
(1:05:29) Competitors to MR
(1:07:51) New Jersey and The Sopranos
(1:11:56) Rapid fire - what Tyler learned from different people
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Links
- New Yorker on Joyce Carol Oates
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Samo Burja
Samo and I talk about history, gerontocracy, and energy.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:21) Knowledge decaying over time
(0:06:02) History and the overabundance of information
(0:11:10) History as a profession
(0:13:32) What would Hitler and Stalin think of our textbooks?
(0:16:44) What would we gain from a more accurate picture of history?
(0:22:31) Defining Live Players and Great Founders
(0:25:03) Live Players and philosophy
(0:30:15) Is China more fragile than the US?
(0:42:34) Gerontocracy and succession
(0:51:53) Will Capitalism last 100 years?
(1:04:02) Transition to clean energy
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Links
- Great Founder Theory manuscript
- Samo’s new podcast, Live Players
- Subscribe to Undertone on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack.
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Vitalik Buterin
Vitalik and I talk about libertarianism, Ethereum, and AI.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:21) Governance mechanisms
(0:02:32) Talent in crypto
(0:10:02) Talent clusters
(0:15:23) Crypto conferences
(0:19:07) Vitalik’s vision for ETH
(0:28:51) Libertarian canon
(0:47:25) ETH cultural or technological innovation?
(0:53:19) Learning languages in the age of AI
(0:57:05) AI and d/acc
(1:06:43) P(doom)
(1:12:17) Humanity’s descendants
(1:17:13) If ETH succeeds, why?
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Links
- Follow Vitalik on X
- Follow Dan on X
- Follow Dan on Substack
Adam Mastroianni
Adam and I talk about humor, peer review, and the future of science.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:45) Is bias overrated?
(0:01:46) Researcher ambition
(0:05:52) Illusion of moral decline
(0:08:10) Morality over time
(0:11:33) Humor and teaching
(0:13:48) Misconceptions about humor
(0:16:48) Lost in translation
(0:21:07) Good research ideas
(0:27:37) Peer review
(0:29:51) Science House
(0:35:29) Identifying talent
(0:40:11) Adam's acting career
(0:49:59) Art blemishes
(0:52:10) What makes a good piece of writing?
(0:54:21) Adam's information diet
(0:55:10) Poorly defined problems
(0:58:40) Measures of intelligence
(1:01:35) The Milgram Study
(1:04:17) The replication crisis
(1:06:15) How many studies matter?
(1:10:19) The future of science
Links
- Subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack.
- Follow Dan on X.
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Scott Sumner
Scott and I talk about film, literature, asset bubbles, and monetary policy.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:33) Fiction for economists
(0:03:44) Knausgaard or Proust?
(0:07:04) TV or film?
(0:11:58) Joseph Conrad and Werner Herzog
(0:14:29) Underrated writers
(0:16:47) Do pessimists make better art?
(0:18:34) Cultural pessimism
(0:25:03) Meaning in jobs
(0:28:54) Behavioral vs classical economics
(0:34:16) Are bubbles real?
(0:39:53) Nominal GDP
(0:56:29) Relative importance of monetary policy
(0:59:03) Equilibrium interest rates
(1:04:58) Technology and productivity
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Links
- Scott's "What do we mean by meaning?"
- Scott's "Wallowing in nostalgia (an autobiography)"
- Scott on Robert Louis Stevenson
- Scott's intro course on money
- Subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or Substack.
- Follow Dan on X.
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Sam Hammond
Sam and I talk about Hegel, LLM consciousness, and intellectual breadth.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:38) Joseph Heath
(0:02:52) Iain Banks and defunctionalized culture
(0:05:46) Memetic cultures
(0:06:39) Misinterpreting Hegel
(0:08:05) Sam's Hegelian influence
(0:09:41) Libertarian dialectic
(0:13:39) Should EA become explicitly religious?
(0:20:53) Hegel and AI
(0:25:07) Wittgenstein and AI
(0:32:48) Can transformers generalize beyond their training set?
(0:35:16) Can we understand consciousness?
(0:40:20) Trading on AI innovation
(0:44:26) AI and leviathan
(0:51:30) Attracting talent to the public sector
(0:55:10) AI and the great founder theory
(0:58:58) AI lock-in effects
(1:00:54) Technological unemployment
(1:02:47) Intellectual breadth
(1:08:55) Sam Hammond production function
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Links
Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi and I talk about AI and strategy games.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:43) What makes a good strategy game?
(0:05:29) Culture of Magic: The Gathering
(0:10:14) Raising the status of games
(0:13:31) First mover advantage in LLMs
(0:18:23) Consumer vs. enterprise AI
(0:21:28) Non-technical founders
(0:25:24) Where Zvi gets the most utility from AI
(0:28:56) Straussian views on AI risk
(0:36:18) Is AI communist or libertarian?
(0:44:50) Dangers of open source models
(0:47:18) How much GDP growth can realize from today's models?
(0:49:40) AGI and interest rates
(0:58:22) RLHF impact on model reasoning
(1:00:42) Bayesian vs. founder reasoning
(1:04:15) Zvi Mowshowitz production function
(1:10:16) Is AI alignment a value problem?
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Links
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Rohit Krishnan
Rohit and I talk about efficient organizations, influencing curiosity, the future of VC.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(00:17) BS jobs
(04:36) SBF on employee efficiency
(11:02) AI on employee efficiency
(14:56) Efficient organizations as a thesis
(19:53) Are people or more less curious today?
(25:10) Firms influencing curiosity
(34:06) Return to office
(39:00) Future of VC
(47:23) Trading on margin
(55:13) Role of VC in building companies
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Links
- Rohit’s blog - Strange Loop Canon
- David Graeber, B******t Jobs
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Steve Hsu
Steve and I talk about gene editing, polygenic scores, and human flourishing.
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Timestamps
(0:00:00) Intro
(0:00:33) Genomic Prediction
(0:05:54) IVF
(0:12:34) Phenotypic data
(0:15:42) Predicting height
(0:28:27) Pleiotropy
(0:39:14) Optimism
(0:45:03) Gene editing
(0:48:27) Super intelligent humans
(1:01:27) Regulation
(1:06:36) Human values
(1:17:38) Should you do IVF?
(1:26:06) 23andMe
(1:29:03) Jeff Bezos
(1:34:29) Richard Feynman
(1:43:43) Where are the superstar physicists?
(1:45:37) Is physics a good field to get into?
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Links
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Bryan Caplan
Bryan and I talk about his new book, Voters as Mad Scientists.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(05:15) Social desirability bias
(15:15) Left v right
(22:07) The respect motive
(28:40) Material v rhetorical dominance
(33:00) Extremism
(39:28) Venerating great names
(44:04) Bryan's bets
(48:07) Bryan's alternative to democracy
(58:53) Where to find Bryan's work
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Links
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A
Robin Hanson
Robin and I talk about the sacred, humanity's descendants, and social rot.
Episode transcript: https://www.danschulz.co/p/1-robin-hanson
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Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(00:31) Changing careers late in life
(01:29) Philosophy
(04:33) AI
(15:20) The sacred
(29:56) Humans exploring the universe
(38:02) Social rot
(46:52) The Elephant in the Brain
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Links
- "Will World Government Rot?"
- Share anonymous feedback on the podcast here: https://forms.gle/w7LXMCXhdJ5Q2eB9A