THE SPLINTER

Alex Izydorczyk is the founder & CEO of Cybersyn, a Data as a Service company building a real-time understanding of the world's economy. He is also the author of Magis, a newsletter focused on data, finance, and modern economics. 

In this episode, we discussed the “external data hypothesis” behind Cybersyn, the alpha contained in consumer spending data, what hedge fund analysts have in common with CPG brand managers, why “good taste” matters in quant research, whether time series are impervious to machine intelligence, and the need for a Manhattan Project for economic data.

Packy McCormick (@packyM) is the founder of Not Boring, a newsletter and early-stage venture fund investing across the frontiers of bits and atoms. 

In this episode, we discussed the importance of strategy, the dual mandate of differentiation & defensibility in startups, how economic moats guard profits, the value of uncertainty as a strategic asset, the challenges of deep tech investing, and the competitive dynamics of the AI landscape.

Martin Gurri (@mgurri) is a former CIA analyst and author of The Revolt of the Public. He is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Mercatus Center (@mercatus).

In this episode, we discussed how information transforms the political landscape, expertise & uncertainty in the modern era, the effectiveness of propaganda throughout history, how excess skepticism engenders excess dogmatism, the potential of open source intelligence (OSINT), and the future of new media & journalism.

Gabe Dominocielo (@dominocielo) is co-founder & President of Umbra (@umbraspace), a remote sensing company on a mission to deliver global omniscience with its constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar satellites.

In this episode, we discussed the unique advantages of SAR for the mapping & monitoring of our world, the unit economics of earth observation, the ongoing commodification of data, bootstrapping as a competitive edge for startups, and the value of first principles thinking in life & investing.

Eli Dourado (@elidourado) is an economist, researcher & writer. He is currently a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University (@cgousu). 

In this episode, we discussed TFP as the right measure of progress for society, regulatory hacking in practice, energy superabundance, state capacity in the modern era, and the importance of culture in avoiding a zero-sum future. 

Byrne Hobart (@ByrneHobart) is the author of The Diff, a newsletter studying inflections in finance & technology. He is also the host of a new podcast called The Riff, produced by Turpentine (@TurpentineMedia).

In this episode, we discussed the nature of market efficiency & financial bubbles, the importance of risk-taking in society, how best to counter the so-called “degrowth” movement, his forthcoming book with Tobias Huber (@TobiasAHuber) and the promise of Special Economic Zones. 

Ben Reinhardt (@Ben_Reinhardt) is an engineer, researcher & writer. He is the founder & CEO of Speculative Technologies (@Spec_Tech), a non-profit organization that runs coordinated research programs focused on new materials and advanced manufacturing processes.

In this episode, we discussed the kinds of institutions best suited for promoting innovation, why DARPA is an organization worthy of emulation, the significance of our cultural attitudes towards energy production & consumption, and what LLMs might contribute to the scientific enterprise.

Michael Gibson (@William_Blake) is co-founder & general partner of the 1517 Fund (@1517fund) and author of The Paper Belt on Fire.

In this episode, we discussed his experience launching the Thiel Fellowship, the nature of progress in science & philosophy, our understanding of talent & creativity, the importance of charter cities and how to imagine the future.