Key Assumptions Behind CBO's GDP Outlook

Since CBO’s projected debt and deficit figures are contingent on other economic indicators like GDP, examining the assumptions underlying these figures is critical. Under a more realistic assumption of GDP growth, actual debt in 2023 might be even higher than the 77 percent of GDP projected in the CBO’s baseline scenario.

The charts illustrate the key assumptions regarding economic growth in the CBO’s budget outlook. These projected GDP figures are then compared with actual GDP figures from the past decade. The projected data used in these charts are from the CBO’s 2013 Budget and Outlook, and the historical data are from the OMB historical tables.