Compounding Intelligence: Adapting to the AI Revolution

In recent years and months, artificial intelligence (AI) has been catching up to human performance at complex cognitive tasks. This paper examines the drivers of this trend—increasing computational power, expanding data availability, and improving algorithmic efficiency—and argues that the trend is likely to continue. The paper then reviews the implications of this trend for national security, policy, and the economy. AI is likely to be one of the most important productivityenhancing innovations of our time, and key policy decisions about AI made now will resonate through the coming decades. The paper outlines a set of policies that would promote economic growth and enable AI to be deployed to enhance dynamism in the American economy, while arguing that enhanced societal resilience, better evaluations, and monitoring frameworks are sufficient to address risks. The paper advocates for an empirical, evidence-based approach to AI policy and regulation, and it cautions against premature and overly restrictive measures that could stifle innovation.