August, 2009

Projections Past and Future: Economic Imagination and the Financial Crisis 2007 - 2012

  • Anthony Evans

    Assistant Professor of Economics, ESCP-EAP European School of Management
Key materials

Whether or not economists could, or should, have predicted the financial crisis, there is an unprecedented urgency and demand for the profession to make itself a little more useful than it currently is. This working paper argues that economists have two main tools at their disposal, both of which are shockingly under-utilized. The first is counterfactual analysis - the ability to construct alternative histories to robustly assess what has transpired to be. The second is scenario building - the creation of alternative futures to interpret and respond to what is to come.

Citation (Chicago Style)

Evans, Anthony J.. "Projections Past and Future: Economic Imagination and the Financial Crisis 2007 - 2012." Working Paper, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, August 2009.